Rate path
One futures-implied policy path, with conditional probabilities for central bank meetings.
One row is
One futures-implied policy path, with conditional probabilities for central bank meetings
Example response
Trimmed real output. No key needed.
GET /v1/datasets/rate-path/sample
Dates reflect the example, not current coverage.
{
"data": {
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:37:20.000Z",
"fetchedAt": "2026-10-08T16:59:54.547Z",
"stale": false,
"status": "available",
"current": {
"effr": {
"value": 3.88,
"asOf": "2026-10-07",
"percentile": 85.11904761904762,
"samples": 252,
"source": "fred",
"stale": false
},
"targetLower": {
"value": 3.75,
"asOf": "2026-10-08",
"percentile": 85.01362397820164,
"samples": 367,
"source": "fred",
"stale": false
},
"targetUpper": {
"value": 4,
"asOf": "2026-10-08",
"percentile": 85.01362397820164,
"samples": 367,
"source": "fred",
"stale": false
}
},
"meetings": [
{
"date": "2026-10-28",
"impliedRate": 3.924999999999997,
"targetMidpoint": 3.9199999999999977,
"changeBps": 4.499999999999726,
"percentile": 89.28571428571429,
"samples": 252,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:13.000Z",
"probabilities": [
{
"targetMidpoint": 3.875,
"probability": 0.8200000000000109
},
{
"targetMidpoint": 4.125,
"probability": 0.17999999999998906
}
],
"method": "following-month",
"reason": null
},
{
"date": "2026-12-09",
"impliedRate": 4.136363636363641,
"targetMidpoint": 4.131363636363641,
"changeBps": 25.636363636364123,
"percentile": 94.04761904761904,
"samples": 252,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:37:48.000Z",
"probabilities": [
{
"targetMidpoint": 4.125,
"probability": 0.9745454545454352
},
{
"targetMidpoint": 4.375,
"probability": 0.025454545454564936
}
],
"method": "monthly-weighted",
"reason": null
},
{
"date": "2027-01-27",
"impliedRate": 4.224999999999994,
"targetMidpoint": 4.219999999999994,
"changeBps": 34.499999999999446,
"percentile": 93.25396825396824,
"samples": 252,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:37:20.000Z",
"probabilities": [
{
"targetMidpoint": 4.125,
"probability": 0.6200000000000223
},
{
"targetMidpoint": 4.375,
"probability": 0.3799999999999777
}
],
"method": "following-month",
"reason": null
},
{
"date": "2027-03-17",
"impliedRate": 4.402142857142879,
"targetMidpoint": 4.397142857142879,
"changeBps": 52.2142857142879,
"percentile": 94.04761904761904,
"samples": 252,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:37:20.000Z",
"probabilities": [
{
"targetMidpoint": 4.375,
"probability": 0.911428571428484
},
{
"targetMidpoint": 4.625,
"probability": 0.08857142857151601
}
],
"method": "monthly-weighted",
"reason": null
},
{
"date": "2027-04-28",
"impliedRate": 4.489999999999995,
"targetMidpoint": 4.484999999999995,
"changeBps": 60.9999999999995,
"percentile": 94.44444444444444,
"samples": 252,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:28.000Z",
"probabilities": [
{
"targetMidpoint": 4.375,
"probability": 0.56000000000002
},
{
"targetMidpoint": 4.625,
"probability": 0.43999999999998
}
],
"method": "following-month",
"reason": null
},
{
"date": "2027-06-09",
"impliedRate": 4.597142857142856,
"targetMidpoint": 4.592142857142856,
"changeBps": 71.71428571428562,
"percentile": 94.44444444444444,
"samples": 252,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:25.000Z",
"probabilities": [
{
"targetMidpoint": 4.375,
"probability": 0.13142857142857522
},
{
"targetMidpoint": 4.625,
"probability": 0.8685714285714248
}
],
"method": "monthly-weighted",
"reason": null
},
{
"date": "2027-07-28",
"impliedRate": 4.640000000000001,
"targetMidpoint": 4.635000000000001,
"changeBps": 76.00000000000007,
"percentile": 94.84126984126983,
"samples": 252,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:25.000Z",
"probabilities": [
{
"targetMidpoint": 4.625,
"probability": 0.9599999999999972
},
{
"targetMidpoint": 4.875,
"probability": 0.0400000000000027
}
],
"method": "following-month",
"reason": null
}
],
"fedFunds": [
{
"symbol": "ZQV26.CBT",
"month": "2026-10",
"price": 96.115,
"impliedRate": 3.885000000000005,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:29:10.000Z",
"percentile": 92.06349206349206,
"samples": 252,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
},
{
"symbol": "ZQX26.CBT",
"month": "2026-11",
"price": 96.075,
"impliedRate": 3.924999999999997,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:13.000Z",
"percentile": 89.28571428571429,
"samples": 252,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
},
{
"symbol": "ZQZ26.CBT",
"month": "2026-12",
"price": 95.925,
"impliedRate": 4.075000000000003,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:37:48.000Z",
"percentile": 94.04761904761904,
"samples": 252,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
},
{
"symbol": "ZQF27.CBT",
"month": "2027-01",
"price": 95.855,
"impliedRate": 4.144999999999996,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:37:55.000Z",
"percentile": 94.44444444444444,
"samples": 252,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
},
{
"symbol": "ZQG27.CBT",
"month": "2027-02",
"price": 95.775,
"impliedRate": 4.224999999999994,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:37:20.000Z",
"percentile": 93.25396825396824,
"samples": 252,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
},
{
"symbol": "ZQH27.CBT",
"month": "2027-03",
"price": 95.695,
"impliedRate": 4.305000000000007,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:05.000Z",
"percentile": 93.65079365079364,
"samples": 252,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
},
{
"symbol": "ZQJ27.CBT",
"month": "2027-04",
"price": 95.595,
"impliedRate": 4.405000000000001,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:07.000Z",
"percentile": 94.44444444444444,
"samples": 252,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
},
{
"symbol": "ZQK27.CBT",
"month": "2027-05",
"price": 95.51,
"impliedRate": 4.489999999999995,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:28.000Z",
"percentile": 94.44444444444444,
"samples": 252,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
},
{
"symbol": "ZQM27.CBT",
"month": "2027-06",
"price": 95.435,
"impliedRate": 4.564999999999998,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:25.000Z",
"percentile": 94.04761904761904,
"samples": 252,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
},
{
"symbol": "ZQN27.CBT",
"month": "2027-07",
"price": 95.4,
"impliedRate": 4.599999999999994,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:25.000Z",
"percentile": 94.84126984126983,
"samples": 252,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
},
{
"symbol": "ZQQ27.CBT",
"month": "2027-08",
"price": 95.36,
"impliedRate": 4.640000000000001,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:25.000Z",
"percentile": 94.84126984126983,
"samples": 252,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
}
],
"sofr": [
{
"symbol": "SR3Z26.CME",
"month": "2026-12",
"price": 95.77,
"impliedRate": 4.230000000000004,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:15.000Z",
"percentile": 93.4108527131783,
"samples": 258,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
},
{
"symbol": "SR3H27.CME",
"month": "2027-03",
"price": 95.505,
"impliedRate": 4.4950000000000045,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:30.000Z",
"percentile": 94.18604651162792,
"samples": 258,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
},
{
"symbol": "SR3M27.CME",
"month": "2027-06",
"price": 95.33,
"impliedRate": 4.670000000000002,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:25.000Z",
"percentile": 94.96124031007751,
"samples": 258,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
},
{
"symbol": "SR3U27.CME",
"month": "2027-09",
"price": 95.26,
"impliedRate": 4.739999999999995,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:41.000Z",
"percentile": 95.73643410852712,
"samples": 258,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
},
{
"symbol": "SR3Z27.CME",
"month": "2027-12",
"price": 95.24,
"impliedRate": 4.760000000000005,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:26.000Z",
"percentile": 96.12403100775194,
"samples": 258,
"status": "available",
"stale": false
}
],
"ghosts": [
{
"label": "1W",
"requestedDate": "2026-10-01",
"asOf": "2026-10-01",
"points": [
{
"date": "2026-10-28",
"impliedRate": 3.94000244140625
},
{
"date": "2026-12-09",
"impliedRate": 4.123180389404297
},
{
"date": "2027-01-27",
"impliedRate": 4.214996337890625
},
{
"date": "2027-03-17",
"impliedRate": 4.381077902657645
},
{
"date": "2027-04-28",
"impliedRate": 4.470001220703125
},
{
"date": "2027-06-09",
"impliedRate": 4.577139718191964
},
{
"date": "2027-07-28",
"impliedRate": 4.625
}
]
},
{
"label": "1M",
"requestedDate": "2026-09-08",
"asOf": "2026-09-08",
"points": [
{
"date": "2026-10-28",
"impliedRate": 3.845001220703125
},
{
"date": "2026-12-09",
"impliedRate": 3.9788665771484375
},
{
"date": "2027-01-27",
"impliedRate": 4.0449981689453125
},
{
"date": "2027-03-17",
"impliedRate": 4.144636971609933
},
{
"date": "2027-04-28",
"impliedRate": 4.180000305175781
},
{
"date": "2027-06-09",
"impliedRate": 4.237144470214844
},
{
"date": "2027-07-28",
"impliedRate": 4.25
}
]
},
{
"label": "1Y",
"requestedDate": "2025-10-08",
"asOf": "2025-10-08",
"points": [
{
"date": "2026-10-28",
"impliedRate": 3.0550003051757812
},
{
"date": "2026-12-09",
"impliedRate": 3.0197708823464136
},
{
"date": "2027-01-27",
"impliedRate": 3
},
{
"date": "2027-03-17",
"impliedRate": 2.9778524126325334
},
{
"date": "2027-04-28",
"impliedRate": 3.0199966430664062
},
{
"date": "2027-06-09",
"impliedRate": 3.0485741751534596
},
{
"date": "2027-07-28",
"impliedRate": 3.0800018310546875
}
]
}
],
"slope": {
"valueBps": 71.50000000000034,
"percentile": 96.82539682539682,
"samples": 252,
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:49:13.000Z"
},
"dotPlot": {
"asOf": "2026-09-16",
"sourceUrl": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm",
"points": [
{
"year": 2026,
"rate": 4.1
},
{
"year": 2027,
"rate": 4.1
},
{
"year": 2028,
"rate": 3.9
},
{
"year": 2029,
"rate": 3.6
},
{
"year": "longer-run",
"rate": 3.2
}
]
},
"schedule": {
"sourceUrl": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"verifiedAt": "2026-09-22",
"through": "2028-01-26"
},
"probabilityAssumption": "Conditional neighboring 25bp target outcomes, with a constant EFFR-to-target-midpoint basis and no unscheduled policy change. For a current-month calculation, published daily EFFR is carried over weekends and its latest value is held constant on unobserved days until the decision. These are a two-point interpolation of futures-implied rates, not a unique probability distribution or CME FedWatch. SR3 is a compounded three-month SOFR rate and does not set meeting probabilities.",
"gaps": []
},
"meta": {
"dataset": "rate-path",
"asOf": "2026-10-08T16:37:20.000Z",
"source": [
{
"id": "market-data",
"attribution": "Exchange and market data providers",
"licence": "Use subject to Gloom Datasets terms"
},
{
"id": "public-rates",
"attribution": "Public central bank and economic publications",
"licence": "Use subject to Gloom Datasets terms"
}
],
"historyStarts": null,
"coverage": null,
"lastUpdated": "2026-10-08T16:59:54.547Z",
"delayed": true,
"disclaimer": "Conditional neighboring 25bp target outcomes, with a constant EFFR-to-target-midpoint basis and no unscheduled policy change. For a current-month calculation, published daily EFFR is carried over weekends and its latest value is held constant on unobserved days until the decision. These are a two-point interpolation of futures-implied rates, not a unique probability distribution or CME FedWatch. SR3 is a compounded three-month SOFR rate and does not set meeting probabilities."
}
}Routes
Base URL https://api.gloom.sh. Send a key with each call; the key's account needs a plan.
GET /v1/rate-path50 credits
Implied policy rate paths and meeting probabilities. Reads the existing dataset service and needs a key on an account with a plan; every plan reads every live dataset in full. Cached market reads can refresh their source data. Unknown, empty and repeated parameters are rejected. History and coverage metadata are null when the stored service cannot establish them.
Parameters: none.
- Credits: 50 (bulk x2)
- Plans: Basic, Desk, Enterprise
Meta fields
- Field
dataset- Here
The dataset id
- In the example
"rate-path"
- Field
asOf- Here
The observation date established by the service; otherwise null
- In the example
"2026-10-08T16:37:20.000Z"
- Field
source- Here
Attribution and usage terms of each source
- In the example
2 sources
- Field
historyStarts- Here
Earliest stored history when established by the service; otherwise null.
- In the example
null, not stated yet
- Field
coverage- Here
Service-established coverage; null when unavailable.
- In the example
null
- Field
lastUpdated- Here
The source update time established by the service; otherwise null
- In the example
"2026-10-08T16:59:54.547Z"
| Field | Here | In the example |
|---|---|---|
| The dataset id |
|
| The observation date established by the service; otherwise null |
|
| Attribution and usage terms of each source | 2 sources |
| Earliest stored history when established by the service; otherwise null. | null, not stated yet |
| Service-established coverage; null when unavailable. | null |
| The source update time established by the service; otherwise null |
|
Sources
- Source
Exchange and market data providers
- Usage terms
Use subject to Gloom Datasets terms
- Source
Public central bank and economic publications
- Usage terms
Use subject to Gloom Datasets terms
| Source | Usage terms |
|---|---|
Exchange and market data providers | Use subject to Gloom Datasets terms |
Public central bank and economic publications | Use subject to Gloom Datasets terms |
Errors
These routes can answer 400, 401, 402, 403, 404, 429, 503. See Errors for the codes.
Gloom Datasets reads stored data only: a call never starts a collection.